©Reuters. FILE PHOTO. A fuel pump hanging from the ceiling at a gas station in Seoul, South Korea. June 27, 2011. REUTERS/Jo Yong-Hak
(Corrects title, first and second paragraph of note sent on Thursday to clarify that the IEA said in April that the risk of a strong deficit in global crude oil markets had decreased)
By Noah Browning
LONDON (Reuters) – The world will not run out of , despite international sanctions curbing Russia’s output, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Thursday, after it lowered its predictions of output losses in the second largest exporter in the world for the second consecutive month.
The IEA now projects that 1 million barrels per day (bpd) of production was lost in April, compared with the 1.5 million bpd it estimated last month and the 3 million bpd it anticipated in March, due to because some refiners in Europe avoided Russian oil in the face of a future import ban.
Increased production elsewhere and slower demand growth due to lockdowns in China will prevent a large shortfall, according to the Paris-based IEA.
Steadily rising volumes from OPEC+ from the Middle East and the United States, coupled with slowing demand growth, are expected to avert a serious supply shortfall amid worsening disruption over time. of Russian supply,” the IEA noted in its monthly oil report.
The Paris-based agency’s assessment suggests the economic impact of new sanctions on Russian energy, which the European Union is considering, could be limited.
“Rising fuel prices and slowing economic growth are expected to significantly slow the recovery in demand in the remainder of the year and into 2023,” the IEA said, adding that restrictions aimed at containing the COVID-19 in China were causing a prolonged economic slowdown in that country.
Reflecting slowing product exports and falling domestic demand, there was a cut of around one million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian oil last month, about half a million bpd less than forecast by the agency last month.
The IEA expects that number to rise to 1.6 million bpd in May, 2 million in June and nearly 3 million from July if sanctions discourage further buying or are expanded.
The United States and other IEA members have pledged to release 240 million barrels of oil in their second emergency stockpiling this year, after the IEA refrained from a US-led release in November because it saw no disruption. important part of the supply at that time.
According to the IEA, Russian exports rebounded in April by 620,000 bpd from the previous month, to 8.1 million bpd, returning to their January-February average, as supply was diverted from the United States and Europe, mainly towards India.
As he works to ban Russian oil, the European Union remained the main market for Russian oil exports last month, according to the IEA, down just 535,000 bpd from the start of the year.
The bloc now accounts for 43% of Russian oil exports, up from 50% then.
(Reporting by Noah Browning; edited in Spanish by Benjamín Mejías Valencia)